In their 40+ year history the Buffalo Sabres are 0 for 4 in Game 7s on the road. Will history repeat itself tonight or will these resilient kids continue to ride the Pegula Push to a franchise first? With all things being equal I’d like our chances but unfortunately all things are not equal heading into this game.
First I want to address the Mike Richards hit on Tim Connolly. Now we all know that a player’s condition in the NHL playoffs is a bigger mystery than who shot JFK, and probably just as well guarded, but it was easy to see that Connolly was not going to play in Game 7 after that hit, a fact confirmed by Sabres coach Lindy Ruff after game 6 who described Connolly as having “an upper body injury”. The hit was so vicious and dirty that I was enraged when the call was only for a 2-minute penalty. I thought the hit was worthy of a 5-minute penalty plus an ejection and apparently I’m not the only one as hockey media outlets all over are both appalled at the hit and outraged by the league’s subsequent decision not to suspend Richards for the pivotal 7th game.
Does anyone remember a few days back when Richards suggested that the Sabres were “getting away with murder” out there despite being the more penalized team to that point. Since making that statement the hypocritical Flyers captain has elbowed Patrick Kaleta square in the face in Game 5 (drawing a 5 minute penalty) and then for an encore drove Connolly’s face and head into the boards from behind, basically ending his series and perhaps his season. These were two careless and dangerous acts that could have seriously injured both players and might have done just that to one.
I’m sure you’ve heard the expression “an eye for an eye” and many of you may have also heard the response “makes the whole world blind”. In this case an eye for an eye would have been warranted. Since Connolly will be missing his team’s most important game of the year, so should Richards. He should have been suspended for a least one game. I don’t care if he’s an All Star, a captain on one of the most high profile teams in the league, or if this is a season deciding game, he should sit. If Patrick Kaleta did the same thing to any Flyer, they’d probably suspend him for the rest of the year and some of next year. Instead of evening the odds that the Flyers unfairly tipped in their favor the league would rather turn a blind eye and do what it often does in this situation… nothing.
In the offseason I’m sure we’ll hear more about the league’s efforts to curtail head injuries and reduce the number of concussions. Without seriously deterring these types of hits I can’t imagine how the NHL could ever make an impact in this regard. This was yet another chance for them to stand up and say that this type of play has no place in their league and again they’ve let the opportunity to make a difference slip through their fingers.
In Connolly’s place will be the returning Derek Roy who hasn’t played since two days before Christmas after suffering a serious quadriceps tear. At the time of the injury Roy led the Sabres in scoring and if there’s one thing I think the Sabres could use in this game 7 is more scoring punch. But will Roy be 100% and more importantly, will he be effective after so much time away? There’s no time for Roy to be rusty.
After Buffalo blew 3 and 2-goal leads in each of the last 2 games, the unfortunate incident with Connolly and the deciding game being in Philadelphia, I think the signs are pointing the Flyers’ way. They have the momentum and they’ve always had the deeper and better skilled team. On paper the only advantage I’d say we have is in goal. Just look at the goals that have been scored in this series. Sure, Miller has given up a few that he’d like back but for the most part the goals the Flyers have scored have been good looking goals. They’ve been one timers, cross ice passes, screen shots, wristers just under the crossbar and well placed put backs on rebounds and deflections. Now look at the Sabres goals. How many of them have gone in due to terrible goaltending? They’ve chased the Flyers starting goaltending how many times? If you are counting at home the answer is 3 times and yet the Sabres have won only 1 of those games. The Flyers are in this in SPITE of their goaltending. If they get anything close to NHL caliber goaltending tonight they should move on over the Sabres.
But hold on, how does Buffalo win game 7? It’s easy to spell it out here. Ryan Miller has to be dynamite in goal. Does he need to put up a shutout? I’d say no but he cannot give up 4 or 5 goals if Buffalo is to win. He might not be able to give up 3. The Sabres young defense has to answer the call and assist Miller in shutting down the Flyers attack. Miller’s aggressive style calls heavily on his defense to pick up guys around the net and as we saw in game 6, they let him down at bad times. Outside of Tyler Myers and godsend Marc-Andre Gragnani, the Sabres young defense is very shaky. Chris Butler and Mike Weber are great one game, off the next. That’s to be expected of young players in such a high pressure situation but veterans like Shaone Morrisson and Steve Montador were actually playing worse when they were in. We’ve seen that the kids and the rest of the defense can do the job in 2 Ryan Miller shutouts where the Sabres team defense was as strong as their goaltending. Can they reverse the trend of the last 2 games where it seemed the Flyers were getting better and better opportunities on Miller?
Another important component to a Sabres Game 7 victory is getting strong contributions from forwards big and small. By big I mean the guys who make the most money and have shown this most throughout this season. This means continued scoring from Thomas Vanek plus something, anything from Brad Boyes and Drew Stafford. Boyes has not even registered a single point in this playoff while the streaky Stafford has but one goal in the series. If one or both of these guys can get it going, that would go a long way towards getting Buffalo in round 2 of the playoffs.
Yes the Sabres need help from the big guns in a winner take all showdown but let us not forget the little people. Of course I’m talking about diminutive wingers Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe. The Sabres wouldn’t be at game 7 without them. These two have been among the best players for the Sabres in this series and I don’t see why that won’t continue tonight. If those big guns can get it going, they’ll draw the Flyers attention and that just opens the door a little wider for players like Ennis and Gerbe to charge through.
The bottom line is that the Sabres barely got into the playoffs. They aren’t supposed to beat a Conference power like Philly. They aren’t expected to win tonight and they’ve treated us to more exciting playoff hockey than we thought we’d get back in December. That said, they are playing with house money and as the cliché of the underdog goes, they have nothing to lose. They should let it all hang out and play this game with emotion, aggressiveness and try to take it to the Flyers. The Sabres can do this. They can steal the series away from a team that many considered the best in the Eastern Conference this year and they can do it with lesser talent and far less experience. They need a lot to happen in their favor but 3 times out of 6 so far it has. With that kind of a coin flip chance, it can certainly happen again.
Prediction: In game 6, Philadelphia turned the tide and stole the momentum from the upstart Sabres humbling them in their own building after yet another poor goaltending performance from their own starter. In fact I’d say their goaltending is the only reason this series has gotten this far. Heart and grit matter lots this time of year and because of that and the inconsistency in the Flyers’ net you can’t count the Sabres out but I think that the Flyers’ overwhelming advantage of talent up front will prove too much for the Sabres young defense to bear and the Flyers will send the Sabres home for good, 4-2. I hope I’m wrong.
I’m proud of the team from the owner down because back in the winter BP (before Pegula) I didn’t think the Sabres would make the playoffs and I didn’t feel the optimism about this year, about next year that I feel now. There’s a very good thing going on here in Buffalo that is just getting started. Let’s hope that the next chapter starts this weekend against the Crapitals and not next Fall in the form of a new season.
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