Monday, January 30, 2012

State of the Sabres (1-30-12)


With the All Star break just about over, the Sabres return tomorrow night against Montreal… did you miss them? Did you even know they were gone for a week? Things are not ideal in Pegulaville and I guess the more important question is could the MSG/Time Warner Cable stalemate have come at a better time than when it did? Watching Sabres games have become such a gamble that if you aren’t currently able to see them, it’s simply not worth it to go a local pub and drop a bit of cash for drinks and/or food only to be subjected to something so awful that said food and drink could come right back up. The Sabres only seem to play hard for 20 minutes a night, if that and that's usually all the time the viewer needs to ascertain what will happen that night. Will it be close? Will the Sabres give a fair effort? It’s a big difference from a few seasons ago and even the end of last season when a 2-0 deficit had us wondering if they could come back and win. We kept watching because more often than not, they closed the gap to 1 goal, took it to OT and even stole a few. Falling behind didn’t mean a sure loss. Now a 2-0 deficit has the viewer wondering how bad the final score will actually be. Will we get shutout? Will it go from respectable to downright embarrassing? It’s no way to watch a team or a game and it seems less people want to watch this team. Even after last Tuesday’s refreshing win over New Jersey, the Sabres are still fighting to avoid being last place in the entire conference.

I’ve watched nearly every game since the MSG blackout and one of the questions that cross my mind most nights is; are they trying to get Lindy fired? The team hierarchy offers the large amount of injuries this year as the primary reason for their dreadful performance so far and injuries certainly play a role but more than that it’s terrible play and a lack of consistent effort. Every athlete goes through little slumps here and there but for so many guys to play so badly, for so long, at the same time? It’s highly improbable. It seems like there’s more to it. The passing is horrendous and game by game we have to watch the worst passes of the bunch end up in the Sabres’ net but even worse than the lack of good fundamental play is the lack of a consistent effort from this team. This is the part where I think some guys on this team are trying to get Lindy fired or have simply tuned him out. Collectively the guys give little effort most nights and routinely get beaten to loose pucks, lose the battles in corners and refuse to block shots, hit and sacrifice for the greater good. In fact, some of these guys should be charged with Grand Larceny because they are stealing millions from owner Terry Pegula this season.

People are using terms like “lifeless”, “gutless”, “stagnant”, “stale”, “underachieving”, “no heart” and that many of these guys are doing nothing more than collecting a check. Isn't saying that a team has no heart the worst thing you can say about one? It would be one thing if they didn't have any talent. It would be different if these guys were busting their butts and hustling all the ice but just didn't have enough talent to beat the better teams but to give such a pedestrian effort most of the time against competition both good and bad, to show no concern or even any anger that they are regressing and to look like they don't give a crap about their coach, their owner, each other and their fans is unforgiveable. Where's the pride? You’ve fallen on hard times, we get it. Now fight your way back to your feet! Recently in Chicago Paul Gaustad was run and knocked out of the game by tough guy Jamal Mayers and no one lifted a finger. It was a cheap shot and while it was a dirty hit to a lesser extent than the now infamous Milan Lucic hit on Ryan Miller in November, it once again exposed the Sabres as a team that can be beaten up and pushed around and they won’t push back. They won’t fight back. Do they even care? It makes me sick to watch. I have a feeling I’m not alone.

Then there’s Ryan Miller. 2 years ago he was arguably the best goalie on the planet and an Olympic hero… what happened? He’s statistically one of the worst goalies in the whole league this year. Going into that game where he was run the Sabres had a record of 10-5 on the season. Miller was playing shaky but the team was going along well considering and everyone was waiting for them to really get into gear. Then the thrashing at Boston happened and the team has found themselves in a downward spiral that has seen them lose 24 out of 34 games since that day. Miller went from being in a slump full on into the abyss with more than a few people wondering if he will ever be that Vezina trophy winning netminder again. The fact of the matter is Miller has always been a fiery, sensitive, eccentric goalie. I know it seems silly when talking about a rich, successful professional athlete but when the home crowds booed him early this year and when none of his teammates would stick up for him that November night in Boston, I think his feelings were deeply hurt and it's partially alienated him from this team. I don’t think he’s been the same since and I feel like there’s a rift there. Combine that with the nasty concussion he suffered that night and one has to wonder if he’s 100% physically, psychologically and emotionally.

Between the concussion and the disrespect he might feel from his peers I’m speculating that his heart is not entirely in it with this team. Look at the 2nd time he was run by Nashville’s Jordin Tootoo in early December. He immediately dove upon Tootoo himself! Would a goalie normally be so quick to attack his attacker like that? Or did he do what he did because he thought no one would have his back? I think there’s something to that with Miller, and I think it’s beyond a simple apology from everyone involved. I don’t think he trusts his teammates in tough spots and with good reason. They let him down with alarming frequency and several times a game Miller finds himself staring down a 2 on 1 or worse after another poor pass or lackluster effort  leads to a costly turnover. It’s been the Sabres’ recipe for doom lately and in the old days when it did happen; Miller would usually bail out his teammates with big saves. Is he letting in goals on purpose? Of course not, but like the guys in front of him, his heart may not be in it right now. If you want to call my theory conspiracy that's fine, but if I'm right, it’s not a situation beyond repair and as we know in sports, winning cures all. Perhaps if this team can play a team game and get it together, they could go on a little winning streak and maybe things could be what they were at the end of last season. Until then, we are left to wonder what’s wrong with Ryan.

Behind all of this turmoil on the ice I feel really bad for Terry Pegula, Ted Black and everyone who came in with so much positive energy and good intentions. These guys have come in and especially in Terry's case are living a dream that has become a nightmare. Terry, Ted and the rest have done a wonderful job with the organization, the community and have done nearly everything right... except the actual hockey stuff. I’m talking about General Manager Darcy Regier and Coach Lindy Ruff.

I wouldn’t be heartbroken if either were fired but I am more partial towards Lindy staying because I do think he’s a good coach. With Darcy I feel like there is definitely a place for him in a team’s front office I just don’t want him doing all the drafting, trading, signing and decision making, i.e. the main responsibilities of a general manger. As a GM Darcy is best from a position of strength, where he can methodically plot his course and take all the time he wants to make moves. It fits right in with his deliberate decision making and carefully slow action. In this case, in times of weakness where quick thinking, quick strikes and adaptable vision are needed he fails. Darcy is simply not a war-time consigliere.   

He missed his chance to help the team for this season about a month ago. Prior to Christmas all the cracks in the foundation were showing and this team desperately needed help to make a playoff run. Nearly everyone (fans, media) was agreed on that assessment. The rumors were that Darcy was asking too much for his guys, once again overvaluing the players he drafted and acquired that comprised the core of the wounded bunch. He probably didn’t think he’d get fair value for his guys. Guess what? The ship was sinking faster than the Titanic and with so many players having bad years of course he wasn’t going to get what he perceived as fair value for his guys. He is dealing from a position of weakness. When a team is struggling as bad as the Sabres have been it obviously isn’t the best time to deal but you cannot help the team in the short term by doing nothing. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet for the greater good. Some of these guys had to be sent packing in order to change the lethargic feeling that’s been growing in the locker room and spreading onto the ice. If the Sabres wanted to make a charge for the postseason like they did last year, the time to have made moves was at least a month ago. Instead of a spark we got excuses from the top down, even Pegula himself was citing the injuries as the primary factor for the unexpectedly bad results. Meanwhile, this team fell from battling for the last playoff spot to the bottom of the conference in the last month. Now, they are 10 points back and in a dogfight with 8 other teams for that last spot. It's too big of a mountain to climb.

With most of the team returning from injury the team shows little signs of improvement, especially after a 6 game road trip where they lost the first 5 games, some in gruesome fashion and barely won on the last stop on the trip due to a phenomenal performance by Miller. At least it was a win going into the break… Sabres fans were happy for that break by the way. With only 33 games left, it not unrealistic to think they need to win more than two thirds of those remaining games. That means they’d have to win possibly 24 of 33 games when they haven’t won more than 20 in the first 49 games. If they won 24 and lost 9 of the last 33 (with no OT or shootout losses), they’d have 93 points for the year which is what the N.Y. Rangers had last year to earn the last playoff spot in the East. Now that you know how long the odds are to make a playoff run this season, do you actually think the Sabres will do it? I have no reason to think they will and with that in mind, this is what I would do: 

My philosophy for the rest of this season could be summed up in one word: future. I want to blow this team up, sell off the stale and underachieving parts for what we can get, whether its draft picks, prospects or character guys and get some of the kids up from Rochester to get valuable NHL experience. Now when I say blow it up I don’t mean a complete rebuild. I'm talking retooling. There are some parts here that can be used going forward to build our winner. I would keep high priced guys like Vanek, Pominville and Ehrhoff, plus keeping Myers is a no-brainer. I would also keep more reasonably priced guys like Gerbe, Ennis and Weber who are useful 3rd liners and depth. Keeping some of the high priced, higher talent guys helps to potentially make this only a 1-year turnaround whereas a complete rebuild would mean moving all the high priced core guys and that could take a few seasons before you have a good team. We want this to be a lot better by next October.

Then I would move Derek Roy, Drew Stafford, Jochen Hecht, Paul Gaustad, Brad Boyes, Jordan Leopold and I would listen to offers for Andrej Sekera and Ryan Miller although not actively shop them. If someone blows me away with an offer for Miller, I take it. Leopold still has another year on his deal but he is a solid veteran defenseman who can contribute offense. Teams are always looking for those at the deadline. Sometimes you can even squeeze a first round draft pick out of one. Also I just heard that Tim Gleason re-signed in Carolina for 4 years and he was one of the hottest Defensemen available on the trade market. Guys like Leopold and Sekera could now fetch a nice bounty at the deadline as desperate teams compete against each other to acquire them.  

Guys like Derek Roy and Drew Stafford have undeniable talent and through underachieving or just being undisciplined on the ice have drawn the ire of Sabres fans, including this one. Both guys seem overpaid right now with each making $4 million per year but if they play to their potential, they are fairly priced. If you have a guy with talent who isn’t a complete head case or someone who gets into trouble off the ice but is just struggling, you’ll always find a team or many of them who want to gamble and see if they can bring that talent back out. With the trade market becoming clearer by the day and with the lack of many superstars and top level talent available, both these guys could be highly sought after by playoff bound teams who feel they need one more piece to their Stanley cup puzzle.

Hecht, Gaustad and Boyes are making about $10 million in combined salary that was coming off the books after the season and they were most likely guys that wouldn’t have been re-signed anyway. They do us no good now that we are planning for next year. Why not try to get something for them before they depart for free? Between the 3 of them we can perhaps get a few draft picks and/or mid-level prospects to help restock Rochester.  

Why do need to restock Rochester? I’m glad you asked. We need depth there because I plan to call up Zack Kassian, Corey Tropp, Marcus Foligno, Derek Whitmore, Jacob Legace and perhaps a few more to replace the departed while expanding the current roles of Luke Adam and Brayden McNabb to see what all these kids can bring to the table in the near future.

This is what I’d do if I were in charge. The reality I subscribe to says it’s too late for this year to be salvaged and for that I blame Darcy Regier and think he should be fired for it. I keep Lindy for now with the hope that the newly reformed club will respond to him as previous Sabres teams did. Underachievers, upcoming free agents and easily replaceable players should be traded away to load up for the draft and this summer’s free agency and trade period. 

Will the Sabres follow a similar blueprint? Who knows? They’ll either make some moves this week to try to make a run for the playoffs now or they’ll sell off parts in February leading up to the trade deadline and raise the white flag. If they decide our season is over I would hope they’d bring in a new GM. I don’t want the man who put us in this mess and failed to respond when needed overseeing the retooling. The new GM could make the necessary moves by this year’s trade deadline and then spend the rest of this season evaluating the remaining "talent" to see who is part of the solution and who is part of the problem. Then when the season is over you make the moves needed to turn this around. A name that’s been brought up a lot is Rick Dudley, a passionate and accomplished hockey man with Buffalo ties. He’d be an easy sell to the fanbase not only as a former Sabres’ player and coach but also as a front office man who had something to do with building Tampa’s 2004 cup winning team as well as Chicago’s recent cup winner in 2010.  

As for now, until this team does something, anything to change the dreadful climate they’ve created, all of us fans remain hostages caught in the middle of a brutal financial dispute between our cable provider and the television home of the Sabres and even worse held hostage by the Sabres themselves who refuse to acknowledge what all of us have seen for months… that this team as it is now is unwatchable and something needs to change. Perhaps MSG did us a favor after all.