Yankees will win Game 6

My preview for tonight's Yankees' win err Game 6 of the American League Championship Series:

As I watched game 5 Wednesday night I was taking mental notes from the first few pitches to the end of the game. I noticed Texas looked tight from the get go. They made uncharacteristic mistakes and looked unready for the next step. They looked nervous. Why wouldn’t they be? They are in uncharted territory. The franchise is in the American League Championship series for the FIRST time in their near 40 year history. That’s right! Not only have they never been to the World Series, they’ve also never made it to the league championship. They’ve never even won a playoff series until a week ago when they beat Tampa Bay in the first round. This is bonus time for them so you’d think they’d be loose, carefree and playing with house money. It seemed like they were carefree in the first 4 games as they won 3 of them convincingly and pushed the defending champion New York Yankees to the brink of elimination in their best of 7 series. It wasn’t supposed to be this easy!

What changed in Game 5? Perhaps they got caught up in the moment. I mean here they were in Yankee Stadium, one of the great baseball parks in one of the greatest baseball towns ready to finish off the biggest team in the world and the defending World Series champion despite few thinking they could do it and despite having never won anything in their entire team history.

It started in the 2nd inning of the game when Texas pitcher C.J. Wilson started to crumble. Then there were a few fielding gaffes and then the Yankees had them where they wanted them. Sure Texas threatened to close the gap throughout the game but they could not. The Yankees had turned the tide.

In sports, you often hear clichés about champions. They’ll say things like you can never count out a champion or never underestimate the heart of a champion. These things are usually said when referring to an aging or declining champion who is about to lose, or has the odds stacked against them like the Yankees do now, who despite winning Wednesday night still have to win the next two games in Texas to advance to the World Series. It’s an uphill climb and the odds heavily favor Texas but there’s a reason why those clichés are brought up in times like these… they are true.

The Yankees have seen it all and they know to win. They know how to pounce on another team’s mistakes and make them pay. They are not afraid to lose nor will they be nervous during the game. These guys are cool, confident champions who want it as bad as anyone else does. They know how to win. Whether they have the skill or the luck to prevail is another story but when discussing intangibles, these guys have it all. The Rangers lack many of these traits mostly due to inexperience and as a consequence they may feel more pressure tonight to win. If the Yankees beat them again and force a deciding game 7 tomorrow night for all the marbles I would have to give the Yanks a distinct advantage in that game regardless of who is pitching for who in it.

Speaking of pitching and pressure I wouldn’t want to be either starting pitcher tonight. In a rematch from Game 2 the Yankees’ Phil Hughes will go up against the Rangers’ Colby Lewis and to say there’s pressure on both is an understatement. Lewis bested Hughes in that one but I do not expect a similar result tonight. Regardless of what happened in Game 2, if we just look at the two pitchers I have to think Hughes will pitch closer to the form that made him a first time all star this season. Besides that, Hughes is used to pressure as a 1st round draft pick of the New York Yankees. His 6 year career has been wrought with expectations and demand.

On the other side, Colby Lewis is an afterthought. Sure, Lewis is coming off of his best season in his Major League career where he won 12 games and lost 13. Now, don’t get me wrong, he’s not a terrible pitcher. He did rank among American League leaders in strikeouts and WHIP and but rarely do pitchers have their breakout season at age 31. Before this year he hadn’t even pitched in the Major Leagues since 2007 as he spent the last 2 seasons pitching in Japan trying to find and refine his game. The fact of the matter is Lewis is a solid albeit journeyman pitcher with a career record of 24-28 and while he did outpitch Hughes in Game 2, the law of averages should play out here and that means a beating is in store for Lewis tonight.

Conversely Phil Hughes had his breakout season this year at 24. His 18 wins ranked him 4th in the American League and as previously mentioned he did make his first trip to the All Star game this summer. A lot has been expected of the talented young pitcher and this year he has really delivered. He’s a much better pitcher than he showed in Game 2 and based on the things he’s said the last few days, the skill of the two pitchers and the aforementioned law of averages I strongly feel he will be stellar and also the victor tonight.

The bottom line is that Phil Hughes is a better pitcher than Colby Lewis and the Yankees’ intangibles negate the home field advantage of the Rangers. Expect a big hitting night from the Bronx Bombers and the Yankees will win Game 6.

But game 7 against Texas ace Cliff Lee… well we’ll get to that one later.